Yes, the Ilitch family fired Dave Dombrowski after the most successful decade since the Tigers joined the American League in 1901. There is little doubt Brad Ausmus will get the ax at season’s end; too many leaks keep the executioners anonymous.
Once Dombrowski got the orders the Tuesday before the trading deadline to move David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria, Ausmus had no chance. No pitching. A bullpen so bad that Al Alburquerque is the only reliever who has been with the club all season, and while Alburquerque is a good guy, he is…well…out there.
The Tigers bullpen since the deadline has a 5.75 ERA. “No manager on earth could make that work,” says one current Tiger official. “Look at the managers who get second-guessed the most and you’ll probably find they have the worst bullpens.” In 1984, the Blue Jays had a bullpen that collapsed when they got close to the Tigers, and Bobby Cox said, “when the bullpen falls apart, it infects the starters, it infects the players in the field and, most of all, it infects the way managers manage.”
As we see in Detroit, Los Angeles and many other places.
Here are the worst bullpen ERA’s from August 1 until game times Sunday:
Boston – 6.65. Uehara down, Tazawa worn out.
Atlanta – 6.59. Trades, youth and Fredi Gonzalez has no alternatives.
Detroit – 5.75.
Colorado – 5.53.
Oakland – 5.22. Just check the one run losses.
Seattle – 5.16. Lloyd McClendon will probably get blamed.
San Diego – 4.93.
Philadelphia – 4.66.
Washington – 4.48. Of course it’s Matt Williams’ fault.
Los Angeles – 4.27. When Greinke and Kershaw don’t pitch, seven relievers is common.
It should be little surprise that the Pirates (2.53) have the best bullpen ERA since July 31. Their pitching system with Ray Searage, Jim Benedict and an astute from office is the best in the game, extraordinarily administered by Clint Hurdle. Next best? Cincinnati (2.60), testament to Bryan Price’s handling of a staff that will have more than 100 games started by rookies at season’s end. And then the Giants (2.62).
The question that needs to be asked is if the obsession with not allowing starting pitchers to get to the third time around the lineup a third time is wearing out arms from rookie ball on up. Mattingly asks, “what’s wrong with learning three pitches so you can face someone three times? Is pitching really being taught and developed?”
Ausmus is concerned that young pitchers are conditioned to be happy with five inning starts, running contrary to those he’s caught or managed like Price, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander who set out to get 27 outs every time they start. Price agrees. “What Kevin Cash does with a starting staff that’s last in innings and quality starts is amazing,” says one AL General Manager. “But he can’t do it without Chris Archer. And the Rays can have a dozen optionable relievers to shuttle between Durham and St. Petersburgh.”
“I think we’re at a point where we’re rushing pitchers through the minors based on velocity readings and ‘promise,” says one pitching coach. When Gerry Hunsicker was GM of the Astros, he had Billy Wagner and Brad Lidge in the minors, and where many thought both had such great stuff that they could go right to the big leagues, but Hunsicker had them start in the minors for a year and a half to develop secondary pitches. Ausmus caught them both, and says, “he was absolutely right.”
Look at this Daren Willman contribution from Baseball Savant:
Percentage of total MLB pitches 95 MPH and faster:
2008: 4.8%
2009: 5.4%
2010: 5.5%
2011: 5.2%
2012: 5.6%
2013: 6.4%
2014: 6.9%
2015: 9.0%
So the percentage of pitches over 95 MPH has essentially doubled in seven years. I asked a dozen pitching people for reasons and came up with an interesting combination:
–training methods like the Cressey program, the Texas Ranch and others have had tremendous impact;
–Nutrition and supplements;
–the fact that so many young pitchers go to the showcases, where velocity, not pitchability, is how they are judged;
–shorter minor league outings. And on.
Of course, the Tommy John surgery rate trends upwards.
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With Willman’s wisdom, I am continually amazed by this astounding period in young shortstop history.
Carlos Correa went into yesterday’s game fourth among major league shortstops in batted balls with an exit velocity of 100+ MPH. He leads all shortstops with nine over 110 MPH. He is the only one to hit a ball 115 MPH.
He has done so in 307 at-bats. Goodness. OK, greatness.
Ian Desmond (83), Brad Miller (79 in 392 at-bats), Troy Tulowitzki (74), and Xander Bogaerts (67, plus two over 110 MPH) are the other leaders. Francisco Lindor already has 43 in 305 at-bats.
Oh yes. Corey Seager went into yesterday with six 100+ rockets in 31 at-bats.
What we have to watch at shortstop for the next dozen years is something we’d never have imagined in the good ole days of Phil Rizzuto and Marty Marion.